Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -230 BRWN +190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PENN +8 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PENN -6.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -5.7 (+2.3) | 138.8 (+15.2) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -4.2 (+3.8) | 139.9 (+14.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -5.3 (+2.7) | 138.1 (+15.9) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -5.0 (+3.0) | 138.2 (+15.8) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | PENN 82 – 61 BRWN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRWN 82 – 72 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BRWN 88 – 79 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BRWN 71 – 64 PENN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BRWN 70 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 9-18 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 3-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 72.4 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#217) | -6.3 (#258) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#207) | -1.90 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#194) | -2.56 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.489 (#195) | 0.402 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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