Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | PENN -115 BRWN -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +9 | 167 | Lost |
| Massey | BRWN -0.9 (-8.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+24.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -0.2 (-9.2) | 144.1 (+22.9) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRWN -0.8 (-8.2) | 145.0 (+22.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -0.3 (-9.3) | 142.8 (+24.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -0.0 (-9.0) | 144.2 (+22.8) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | PENN 82 – 61 BRWN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PENN 81 – 73 BRWN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRWN 82 – 72 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BRWN 71 – 64 PENN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BRWN 70 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-19 | 14-13 |
| Conference | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Home | 5-8 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#294) | -4.0 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.27 (#275) | -0.48 (#214) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#269) | -0.89 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#286) | 0.483 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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