Betting Lines
| Spread | BRWN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | BRWN -170 PENN +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +10 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | BRWN -8.4 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRWN -6.4 (+3.6) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRWN -6.1 (+3.9) | 144.1 (+9.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRWN -6.8 (+3.2) | 142.2 (+11.8) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRWN -6.5 (+3.5) | 142.9 (+11.1) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | PENN 82 – 61 BRWN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PENN 81 – 73 BRWN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BRWN 88 – 79 PENN |
| Feb 17, 2024 | BRWN 71 – 64 PENN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BRWN 70 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRWN | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-13 | 8-19 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 4-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-8 |
| Away | 6-7 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#231) | -9.3 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#219) | -1.59 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.78 (#228) | -1.74 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#191) | 0.430 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRWN | PENN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.8% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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