Betting Lines
| Spread | PENN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | PENN -250 BRWN +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PENN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRWN +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | PENN -6.9 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-9.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PENN -4.5 (-11.5) | 140.6 (-5.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PENN -5.3 (-12.3) | 140.0 (-5.0) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PENN -5.0 (-12.0) | 140.1 (-5.1) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PENN -4.6 (-11.6) | 139.3 (-4.3) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | PENN 82 – 61 BRWN |
| Jan 10, 2026 | PENN 81 – 73 BRWN |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRWN 82 – 72 PENN |
| Feb 1, 2025 | BRWN 88 – 79 PENN |
| Feb 3, 2024 | BRWN 70 – 61 PENN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-18 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 3-11 | 8-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.7 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#188) | -5.1 (#264) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.85 (#258) | -1.47 (#305) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.77 (#237) | -1.56 (#294) |
| RPI | 0.468 (#235) | 0.436 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PENN | BRWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.7% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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