Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU +164 AKR -198 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +10 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | AKR -1.3 (-8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 170.7 (-26.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -0.5 (-9.5) | 163.6 (-19.6) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -1.2 (-8.8) | 160.3 (-16.3) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -0.5 (-10.5) | 162.4 (-18.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -0.2 (-10.2) | 162.9 (-18.9) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2025 | AKR 96 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | AKR 71 – 68 BGSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AKR 83 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | AKR 74 – 70 BGSU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | AKR 82 – 68 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 29-6 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 17-1 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-0 |
| Away | 6-6 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 86.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#104) | 10.7 (#53) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.83 (#106) | 1.52 (#71) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.03 (#109) | 1.84 (#76) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#102) | 0.575 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 52.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 39.1% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 60.3% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 35.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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