Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | AKR -1000 BGSU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +29 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -11.4 (+17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -11.8 (+17.2) | 155.2 (+7.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -9.7 (+19.3) | 150.7 (+12.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -10.0 (+19.0) | 152.6 (+10.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -9.1 (+19.9) | 155.3 (+7.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | AKR 77 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | AKR 71 – 68 BGSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AKR 83 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | AKR 74 – 70 BGSU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | AKR 82 – 68 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 16-0 | 8-8 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.4 | 75.4 |
| Massey | 4.1 (#103) | -7.3 (#285) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#75) | -1.31 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#90) | -1.89 (#304) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#28) | 0.438 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.0% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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