Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
| Money | AKR -480 BGSU +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +16 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -11.7 (+4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -9.6 (+6.4) | 140.4 (+9.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -11.6 (+4.4) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -10.1 (+5.9) | 139.9 (+10.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -10.0 (+6.0) | 140.3 (+9.7) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | AKR 77 – 67 BGSU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | AKR 96 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | AKR 71 – 68 BGSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | AKR 74 – 70 BGSU |
| Feb 23, 2022 | AKR 82 – 68 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 10-8 |
| Home | 13-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 7-6 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#92) | -2.0 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#90) | 0.31 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.66 (#79) | -0.06 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#82) | 0.475 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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