Betting Lines
| Spread | AKR -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Over |
| Money | AKR -340 BGSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AKR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AKR +14 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | AKR -8.6 (+5.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.9 (+0.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AKR -7.4 (+6.6) | 148.0 (+2.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AKR -7.9 (+6.1) | 144.4 (+5.6) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AKR -7.9 (+6.1) | 147.5 (+2.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AKR -7.5 (+6.5) | 148.5 (+1.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | AKR 77 – 67 BGSU |
| Mar 13, 2025 | AKR 96 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 3, 2025 | AKR 71 – 68 BGSU |
| Jan 6, 2024 | AKR 83 – 67 BGSU |
| Jan 11, 2023 | AKR 74 – 70 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 12-3 | 9-7 |
| Away | 8-4 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.9 | 82.2 |
| Massey | 0.0 (#162) | -5.7 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#170) | -1.02 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#158) | -1.29 (#264) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#160) | 0.445 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AKR | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 31.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 73.7% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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