Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ +140 VILL -166 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -9.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -7.0 (+4.0) | 140.0 (+9.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -8.1 (+5.1) | 138.6 (+10.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -8.2 (+5.2) | 138.0 (+11.0) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -8.1 (+5.1) | 137.7 (+11.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MARQ 85 – 80 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 14-3 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.2 | 77.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#142) | 14.2 (#34) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.50 (#217) | 2.98 (#22) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#226) | 4.30 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#214) | 0.632 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.48 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.8% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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