Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | MARQ -550 VILL +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +13 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -9.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+12.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -10.7 (+2.3) | 142.7 (+18.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -9.4 (+3.6) | 140.6 (+20.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -10.0 (+3.0) | 144.6 (+16.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -10.8 (+2.2) | 143.0 (+18.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MARQ 85 – 80 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 17.4 (#18) | 10.9 (#54) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#16) | 0.80 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.47 (#8) | 1.28 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.638 (#16) | 0.527 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.9% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 56.4% |
| TOV% | 13.4% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 30.7% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.7% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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