Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VILL +115 MARQ -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +15 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -2.5 (+17.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -1.6 (+16.6) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -0.3 (+15.3) | 135.6 (+11.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -1.9 (+16.9) | 137.9 (+9.1) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -1.6 (+16.6) | 138.1 (+8.9) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MARQ 85 – 80 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-3 | 14-3 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 68.7 |
| Massey | 11.0 (#54) | 16.6 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#91) | 2.70 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#80) | 3.60 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#150) | 0.620 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.53 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 13.3% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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