Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -138 MARQ +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +5 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | MARQ -0.1 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.0 (+23.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -1.2 (-6.2) | 143.5 (+21.5) | 53% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -1.2 (-6.2) | 141.1 (+23.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -0.4 (-5.4) | 143.1 (+21.9) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -0.5 (-5.5) | 143.4 (+21.6) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 78.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 69.8 |
| Massey | 11.4 (#41) | 15.2 (#16) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#77) | 2.49 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#74) | 3.07 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#57) | 0.617 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 22.9% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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