Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | VILL -500 MARQ +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VILL +3 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | VILL -13.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -12.7 (-9.7) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -12.2 (-9.2) | 145.6 (+5.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -12.5 (-9.5) | 143.1 (+7.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -12.6 (-9.6) | 144.4 (+6.6) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MARQ 85 – 80 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-9 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 9-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#36) | 4.4 (#108) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.80 (#30) | 0.24 (#144) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#30) | 0.49 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.618 (#26) | 0.480 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.4% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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