Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -188 VILL +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +6 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -4.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -3.1 (+2.9) | 136.8 (-0.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -3.5 (+2.5) | 135.4 (+0.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -4.0 (+2.0) | 136.6 (-0.6) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -3.9 (+2.1) | 137.6 (-1.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Jan 31, 2024 | MARQ 85 – 80 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-6 |
| Away | 7-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 16.8 (#15) | 12.2 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#9) | 1.45 (#72) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#10) | 2.05 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.610 (#14) | 0.554 (#79) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | VILL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 14.6% | 14.5% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.9% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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