Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | OHIO -225 BUF +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +11 | 171 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -0.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.8 (+13.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -0.8 (+10.2) | 151.2 (+19.8) | 51% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | OHIO -2.6 (+8.4) | 149.3 (+21.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | OHIO -0.7 (+10.3) | 149.5 (+21.5) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -0.6 (+10.4) | 150.7 (+20.3) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OHIO 85 – 61 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 7-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.7 | 77.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.0 | 77.0 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#197) | 1.0 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#140) | 1.29 (#81) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#150) | 1.56 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#118) | 0.553 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.4% | 38.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 36.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.4% |
Game Analysis
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