Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | BUF +500 OHIO -800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +12 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | OHIO -10.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -10.6 (-1.4) | 146.0 (-2.0) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -9.4 (-2.6) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -9.6 (-2.4) | 145.6 (-1.6) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -8.8 (-3.2) | 146.6 (-2.6) | 17% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OHIO 85 – 61 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-27 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 13-5 |
| Home | 2-13 | 12-3 |
| Away | 2-11 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.6 | 71.3 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#341) | 0.5 (#160) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.59 (#349) | -0.07 (#177) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.24 (#350) | -0.01 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.407 (#337) | 0.489 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 26.9% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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