Betting Lines
| Spread | BUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | BUF -142 OHIO +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +12 | 178 | Lost |
| Massey | BUF -7.2 (-19.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.1 (+18.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUF -5.2 (-17.2) | 150.2 (+27.8) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUF -4.6 (-16.6) | 151.3 (+26.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUF -6.2 (-18.2) | 153.5 (+24.5) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUF -4.7 (-16.7) | 152.0 (+26.0) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
| Feb 15, 2023 | OHIO 85 – 61 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.5 | 76.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 80.0 |
| Massey | -0.0 (#165) | -4.1 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.32 (#135) | -0.20 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#125) | -0.37 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#119) | 0.502 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUF | OHIO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.2% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 68.0% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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