Betting Lines
| Spread | OHIO -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | OHIO -213 BUF +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OHIO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | OHIO +24 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | OHIO -5.8 (+18.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OHIO -4.6 (+19.4) | 158.6 (-12.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OHIO -5.0 (+19.0) | 155.8 (-9.8) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OHIO -5.9 (+18.1) | 157.5 (-11.5) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OHIO -4.7 (+19.3) | 161.7 (-15.7) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | OHIO 95 – 83 BUF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | OHIO 91 – 80 BUF |
| Jan 8, 2025 | OHIO 88 – 79 BUF |
| Mar 6, 2024 | OHIO 78 – 66 BUF |
| Jan 31, 2024 | OHIO 91 – 70 BUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 75.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 79.0 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#146) | -1.0 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#162) | -0.34 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#166) | -0.45 (#210) |
| RPI | 0.501 (#177) | 0.487 (#206) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OHIO | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 69.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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