Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | DUKE -1650 SMU +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +7 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -11.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.9 (-4.9) | 158.6 (-1.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -12.6 (-5.6) | 158.6 (-1.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -11.4 (-4.4) | 157.5 (-0.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.3 (-6.3) | 160.1 (-3.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 4, 2025 | DUKE 89 – 62 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 35-3 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 15-3 |
| Away | 10-1 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.6 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.6 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 24.3 (#5) | 16.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.55 (#8) | 3.01 (#21) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.07 (#6) | 3.81 (#24) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#9) | 0.657 (#13) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 49.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 39.3 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.0% | 56.0% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 36.8% | 36.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.8% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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