Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | SMU +300 DUKE -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUKE +27 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -6.1 (-20.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -4.1 (-22.9) | 143.7 (+7.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -4.4 (-22.6) | 145.0 (+6.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -3.3 (-23.7) | 144.7 (+6.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -3.4 (-23.6) | 143.8 (+7.2) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | DUKE 82 – 75 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 19-1 |
| Home | 13-6 | 17-0 |
| Away | 7-4 | 10-1 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 8-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 13.8 (#37) | 24.0 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#32) | 3.26 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.44 (#31) | 4.71 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.599 (#41) | 0.637 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 39.3% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 31.2% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.9% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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