Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -950 UNCG +625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +26 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -16.2 (+9.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.8 (-7.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -12.0 (+14.0) | 146.0 (+0.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -11.2 (+14.8) | 146.4 (-0.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -12.6 (+13.4) | 147.2 (-1.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -13.4 (+12.6) | 146.8 (-0.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ETSU 66 – 65 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-4 | 8-6 |
| Away | 8-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 81.9 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#117) | -8.9 (#298) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#181) | -1.48 (#290) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#174) | -1.94 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#187) | 0.426 (#298) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.4% | 43.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 31.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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