Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | UNCG -120 ETSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +5 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -3.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (+2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.7 (+2.3) | 133.0 (+2.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.7 (+2.3) | 132.2 (+2.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -3.7 (+1.3) | 133.3 (+1.7) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -3.4 (+1.6) | 133.9 (+1.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ETSU 66 – 65 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 71.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.1 (#130) | 1.5 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.29 (#154) | -0.33 (#204) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#152) | -0.23 (#190) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#141) | 0.473 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 38.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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