Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG -275 ETSU +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +11 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -3.9 (-14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-0.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.4 (-13.4) | 136.8 (-1.8) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -2.7 (-13.7) | 134.5 (+0.5) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.9 (-13.9) | 137.5 (-2.5) | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.4 (-13.4) | 138.4 (-3.4) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ETSU 66 – 65 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-4 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#141) | -2.2 (#203) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.80 (#112) | -0.01 (#168) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.76 (#121) | -0.06 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.536 (#111) | 0.503 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 30.0% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.6% |
Game Analysis
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