Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | UNCG +230 ETSU -285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +12 | 162 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -9.1 (-2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -7.6 (-4.4) | 147.8 (+14.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -6.7 (-5.3) | 148.7 (+13.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -6.0 (-6.0) | 149.1 (+12.9) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -7.8 (-4.2) | 148.7 (+13.3) | 25% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ETSU 66 – 65 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-19 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.6 | 76.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#304) | 2.5 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#283) | 0.17 (#150) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#284) | 0.15 (#156) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#263) | 0.532 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCG | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.0% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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