Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -140 UNCG +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +16 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -2.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -0.8 (+15.2) | 131.5 (-17.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -1.7 (+14.3) | 129.1 (-15.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -0.6 (+15.4) | 131.7 (-17.7) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -0.8 (+15.2) | 132.8 (-18.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ETSU 66 – 65 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 6-9 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 67.3 |
| Massey | 0.8 (#145) | 1.8 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#195) | 0.39 (#141) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#185) | 0.40 (#141) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#202) | 0.532 (#118) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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