Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU +110 UNCG -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +1 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | UNCG -0.7 (+1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -0.2 (+1.2) | 138.6 (-7.6) | 53% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -1.1 (+2.1) | 139.7 (-8.7) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -0.8 (+1.8) | 140.6 (-9.6) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -0.7 (+1.7) | 140.0 (-9.0) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 75 UNCG |
| Jan 10, 2026 | ETSU 86 – 60 UNCG |
| Feb 20, 2025 | ETSU 65 – 49 UNCG |
| Jan 30, 2025 | UNCG 70 – 65 ETSU |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 73 – 62 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | 1.8 (#142) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#179) | 0.94 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#171) | 0.80 (#120) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#179) | 0.542 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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