Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | COPP +200 NCCU -245 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +11 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | NCCU -6.6 (-4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -3.8 (-7.2) | 140.9 (+24.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -4.6 (-6.4) | 138.2 (+26.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -4.6 (-6.4) | 140.4 (+24.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -5.4 (-5.6) | 139.1 (+25.9) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | COPP 58 – 56 NCCU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCCU 71 – 59 COPP |
| Jan 4, 2025 | COPP 63 – 61 NCCU |
| Mar 2, 2024 | NCCU 83 – 58 COPP |
| Feb 3, 2024 | NCCU 77 – 46 COPP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COPP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 5-9 | 8-6 |
| Home | 3-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-15 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 77.3 |
| Massey | -24.4 (#364) | -14.1 (#348) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.95 (#351) | -2.95 (#350) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.37 (#355) | -4.10 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.382 (#348) | 0.405 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COPP | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.5% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 27.6% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 41.5% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.9% | 56.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 63.6% | 62.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.3% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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