Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | USM -1450 ULM +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +10 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | USM -17.1 (-7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.0 (-34.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -12.2 (-2.2) | 151.7 (-21.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -12.8 (-2.8) | 155.6 (-25.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -12.8 (-2.8) | 154.9 (-24.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -13.8 (-3.8) | 153.5 (-23.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | USM 71 – 58 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 4-28 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 1-17 |
| Home | 10-3 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 71.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 85.4 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#187) | -14.7 (#349) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#170) | -4.24 (#362) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#163) | -5.67 (#362) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#125) | 0.337 (#362) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 30.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 22.3% |
| FT Rate | 31.5% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 57.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 71.9% | 63.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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