Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | USM -333 ULM +320 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +9 | 127 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -9.0 (-18.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -7.5 (-16.5) | 141.8 (-14.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -8.7 (-17.7) | 143.5 (-16.5) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -7.7 (-16.7) | 144.5 (-17.5) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -7.1 (-16.1) | 144.0 (-17.0) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | USM 71 – 58 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-19 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-9 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 74.9 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#212) | -8.3 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#175) | -1.28 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#198) | -1.54 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#171) | 0.441 (#284) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 34.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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