Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | USM -550 ULM +380 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | USM -8.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -5.2 (+11.8) | 140.7 (+10.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -5.2 (+11.8) | 141.6 (+9.4) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -4.9 (+12.1) | 142.3 (+8.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -5.6 (+11.4) | 140.9 (+10.1) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | USM 71 – 58 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-22 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 3-15 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-11 |
| Away | 1-13 | 2-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 76.9 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#306) | -12.7 (#345) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#291) | -3.22 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#290) | -4.06 (#351) |
| RPI | 0.406 (#325) | 0.338 (#363) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.9% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.2% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 21.3% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 19.4% |
Game Analysis
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