Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +160 USM -190 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ULM +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | USM -3.3 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -2.6 (+9.6) | 142.6 (+12.4) | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -3.4 (+10.4) | 141.6 (+13.4) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -2.6 (+9.6) | 142.6 (+12.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USM -3.0 (+10.0) | 142.1 (+12.9) | 35% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | USM 71 – 58 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 5-13 |
| Home | 5-11 | 9-6 |
| Away | 2-12 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -13.3 (#348) | -6.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#346) | -1.04 (#263) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.10 (#345) | -1.36 (#271) |
| RPI | 0.372 (#353) | 0.447 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.8% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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