Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | ULM +380 USM -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ULM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +14 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -8.7 (-5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -8.4 (-5.6) | 149.0 (+11.0) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -7.2 (-6.8) | 152.9 (+7.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -9.5 (-4.5) | 152.1 (+7.9) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -8.8 (-5.2) | 150.5 (+9.5) | 23% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
| Jan 12, 2024 | USM 71 – 58 ULM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 9-9 |
| Home | 3-10 | 10-3 |
| Away | 1-15 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.4 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -13.8 (#343) | -1.2 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.92 (#360) | -0.18 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.45 (#359) | -0.10 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.344 (#358) | 0.510 (#143) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ULM | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 24.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.2% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 29.4% |
Game Analysis
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