Betting Lines
| Spread | TLSA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA -125 USF +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +15 | 171 | Lost |
| Massey | TLSA -6.5 (-21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 176.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TLSA -7.6 (-22.6) | 162.9 (+8.1) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TLSA -5.4 (-20.4) | 162.5 (+8.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TLSA -7.2 (-22.2) | 164.8 (+6.2) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TLSA -6.2 (-21.2) | 163.7 (+7.3) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USF 72 – 56 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 15-3 |
| Home | 16-2 | 13-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.9 | 86.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#44) | 8.9 (#71) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.90 (#50) | 0.93 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.24 (#65) | 1.41 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#40) | 0.558 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.5% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 41.2% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 42.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 15.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.37 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 38.1% |
| FT Rate | 34.6% | 33.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.3% |
Game Analysis
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