Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 170.5 Under |
| Money | USF -218 TLSA +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +6 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | USF -1.2 (+4.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.8 (-23.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -1.4 (+4.6) | 163.5 (-9.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -2.6 (+3.4) | 164.8 (-10.8) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -1.1 (+4.9) | 164.6 (-10.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -1.8 (+4.2) | 164.4 (-10.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USF 72 – 56 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-9 | 30-8 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-2 | 16-2 |
| Away | 9-3 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.8 | 83.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#61) | 11.4 (#50) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#84) | 1.86 (#54) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#70) | 2.21 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.562 (#65) | 0.597 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 49.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 40.3% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 15.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.8% | 35.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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