Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -9.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | USF -500 TLSA +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +7 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | USF -10.8 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (-32.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -7.6 (-0.6) | 151.1 (-32.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -8.9 (-1.9) | 148.9 (-29.9) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -7.8 (-0.8) | 147.3 (-28.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -8.6 (-1.6) | 148.0 (-29.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
| Mar 2, 2023 | USF 72 – 56 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-6 | 8-9 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#188) | -8.6 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#214) | -1.45 (#301) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#216) | -1.76 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#220) | 0.403 (#331) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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