Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | USF -900 TLSA +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +16 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | USF -13.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.7 (-18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -12.0 (+4.0) | 146.3 (-18.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -9.6 (+6.4) | 145.1 (-17.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -13.4 (+2.6) | 148.5 (-20.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -14.0 (+2.0) | 148.4 (-20.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 5-25 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 1-17 |
| Home | 9-9 | 4-10 |
| Away | 4-7 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L12 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 65.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#142) | -8.9 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#205) | -1.72 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#171) | -1.84 (#308) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#225) | 0.413 (#333) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | TLSA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 48.0% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 72.3% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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