Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | STO -192 CHST +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | STO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STO +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | STO -4.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.6 (+28.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -3.3 (-0.3) | 130.8 (+36.2) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -1.4 (+1.6) | 129.1 (+37.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | STO -2.1 (+0.9) | 129.9 (+37.1) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | STO -1.6 (+1.4) | 129.5 (+37.5) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | CHST 68 – 55 STO |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STO 75 – 73 CHST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STO 68 – 52 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | STO | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 5-13 |
| Home | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Away | 4-15 | 2-19 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 76.5 |
| Massey | -12.1 (#334) | -12.5 (#337) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.18 (#354) | -3.12 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.05 (#351) | -3.87 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#357) | 0.408 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | STO | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 42.7% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 14.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 57.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 61.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 29.8% |
Game Analysis
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