Betting Lines
| Spread | STO -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Under |
| Money | CHST +110 STO -130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CHST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +13 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | CHST -0.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | STO -0.6 (+13.6) | 130.0 (-7.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | STO -0.3 (+13.3) | 128.9 (-5.9) | 46% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | STO -0.3 (+13.3) | 130.1 (-7.1) | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CHST -0.2 (+12.8) | 130.6 (-7.6) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | STO 85 – 82 CHST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | STO 75 – 73 CHST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | STO 68 – 52 CHST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CHST | STO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-25 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 2-19 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 64.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 69.5 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#347) | -11.5 (#329) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.77 (#353) | -2.19 (#341) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.56 (#353) | -2.95 (#345) |
| RPI | 0.398 (#349) | 0.409 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CHST | STO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.6% | 46.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 13.0% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 74.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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