Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Under |
| Money | FAIR -395 RID +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -13.4 (-7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.2 (-14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -10.9 (-4.9) | 138.4 (-8.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -9.0 (-3.0) | 139.6 (-9.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -10.8 (-4.8) | 137.0 (-7.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -11.0 (-5.0) | 138.2 (-8.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 49 RID |
| Dec 5, 2024 | FAIR 78 – 75 RID |
| Feb 9, 2024 | FAIR 84 – 67 RID |
| Dec 3, 2023 | FAIR 88 – 81 RID |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RID 58 – 57 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 4-25 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-4 | 4-9 |
| Away | 7-8 | 0-16 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 62.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 76.8 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#256) | -15.8 (#353) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#228) | -4.65 (#365) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.81 (#227) | -6.40 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.478 (#219) | 0.377 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 36.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 25.0% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.9 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 40.6% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 53.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 72.0% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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