Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -188 RID +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +17 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | FAIR -7.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAIR -4.6 (+12.4) | 148.2 (+2.8) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAIR -5.0 (+12.0) | 149.5 (+1.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAIR -4.9 (+12.1) | 150.8 (+0.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FAIR -4.6 (+12.4) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FAIR 68 – 62 RID |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 49 RID |
| Dec 5, 2024 | FAIR 78 – 75 RID |
| Dec 3, 2023 | FAIR 88 – 81 RID |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RID 58 – 57 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 10-6 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 72.3 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#183) | -4.7 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#190) | -1.21 (#286) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.38 (#201) | -1.42 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.504 (#168) | 0.458 (#256) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 67.2% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.3% | 27.2% |
Game Analysis
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