Betting Lines
| Spread | FAIR -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | FAIR -130 RID +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FAIR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FAIR +3 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | RID -0.3 (+3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.8 (+27.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RID -0.8 (+3.8) | 132.6 (+20.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RID -0.5 (+3.5) | 130.7 (+22.3) | 51% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RID -0.8 (+3.8) | 131.2 (+21.8) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RID -0.9 (+3.9) | 132.7 (+20.3) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | FAIR 68 – 62 RID |
| Feb 22, 2025 | FAIR 69 – 49 RID |
| Feb 9, 2024 | FAIR 84 – 67 RID |
| Dec 3, 2023 | FAIR 88 – 81 RID |
| Feb 11, 2023 | RID 58 – 57 FAIR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-12 | 8-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.7 | 67.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#331) | -4.8 (#251) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#270) | 0.14 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.55 (#305) | -0.35 (#193) |
| RPI | 0.463 (#240) | 0.525 (#125) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FAIR | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.6% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.0% | 45.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.4% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 18.7% |
Game Analysis
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