What have I done? "Police On My Back" - The Clash
Rider Broncs
49 69
FINAL Conference
Fairfield Stags
Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference · Alumni Gymnasium (Rider) · February 22, 2025
Betting Lines
Spread RID -3.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money RID -170 / FAIR +145
Model Predictions
Spread Total RID win
Actual FAIR +20 118 Lost
Massey RID -6.5 (-26.5)
Massey Totals 138.3 (-20.3)
Bradley-Terry 67%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline ML RID -4.2 (-24.2) 135.2 (-17.2) 64%
Baseline Plus ML RID -4.3 (-24.3) 137.0 (-19.0) 65%
Efficiency Plus ML RID -4.1 (-24.1) 134.1 (-16.1) 55%
Baseline Tuned ML RID -4.5 (-24.5) 135.7 (-17.7) 67%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 10, 2026 FAIR 6862 RID
Dec 5, 2024 FAIR 7875 RID
Feb 9, 2024 FAIR 8467 RID
Dec 3, 2023 FAIR 8881 RID
Feb 11, 2023 RID 5857 FAIR

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings RID FAIR
Overall 14-19 12-20
Conference 9-11 8-12
Home 5-7 8-6
Away 8-11 3-12
Neutral 1-1 1-2
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 67.0 66.7
Avg Pts Against 71.8 73.5
Massey -9.2 (#313) -12.5 (#340)
Bradley-Terry -1.32 (#293) -1.50 (#306)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.84 (#301) -2.38 (#325)
RPI 0.437 (#300) 0.433 (#304)
Shooting & Four Factors RID FAIR
FG% 42.2% 39.2%
3PT% 31.1% 31.5%
REB / G 34.5 32.7
OREB / G 11.3 11.7
AST / TO 1.06 1.22
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.9% 45.3%
TOV% 17.8% 15.3%
ORB% 32.3% 30.5%
FT Rate 22.1% 19.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.6% 54.8%
Opp TOV% 16.0% 17.4%
DRB% 68.5% 68.9%
Opp FT Rate 18.5% 25.5%

Game Analysis

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