Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | NE +114 TOW -135 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +9 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -2.2 (-11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -0.4 (-9.4) | 134.7 (+30.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -0.9 (-8.1) | 134.6 (+30.4) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -1.1 (-10.1) | 134.3 (+30.7) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NE -0.6 (-9.6) | 135.0 (+30.0) | 48% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOW 75 – 65 NE |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TOW 80 – 73 NE |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TOW 83 – 76 NE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NE 67 – 59 TOW |
| Jan 27, 2023 | TOW 72 – 63 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-24 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 9-9 |
| Home | 2-10 | 11-3 |
| Away | 3-13 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.0 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -3.1 (#218) | -1.6 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.93 (#250) | -0.43 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.10 (#241) | -0.53 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.466 (#237) | 0.500 (#172) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 26.3% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 14.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 45.0% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 37.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 16.1% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.3% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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