Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | NE -150 TOW +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NE +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | NE -2.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -0.4 (+7.6) | 129.5 (-3.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.0 (+9.0) | 126.6 (-0.6) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -1.4 (+6.6) | 132.6 (-6.6) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NE -0.8 (+7.2) | 133.3 (-7.3) | 56% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TOW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOW 75 – 65 NE |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TOW 80 – 73 NE |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TOW 83 – 76 NE |
| Jan 27, 2023 | TOW 72 – 63 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-5 | 12-2 |
| Away | 4-13 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-6 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.3 | 64.2 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#212) | -1.0 (#185) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#204) | 0.11 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.30 (#202) | 0.16 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.488 (#198) | 0.495 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 15.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.5% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 41.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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