Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -210 NE +175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +7 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -1.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.7 (+6.3) | 131.0 (+22.0) | 52% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -1.2 (+5.8) | 129.9 (+23.1) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.4 (+6.6) | 130.5 (+22.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.3 (+6.7) | 131.9 (+21.1) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TOW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOW 75 – 65 NE |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TOW 83 – 76 NE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NE 67 – 59 TOW |
| Jan 27, 2023 | TOW 72 – 63 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.4 | 70.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -3.8 (#233) | -1.5 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#203) | 0.11 (#156) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#212) | -0.01 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.507 (#156) | 0.505 (#164) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.4% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 19.4% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 17.7% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.5% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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