Betting Lines
| Spread | NE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | NE -115 TOW -105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +10 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | NE -3.7 (-13.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (+5.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NE -1.0 (-11.0) | 136.6 (+3.4) | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NE -1.6 (-11.6) | 133.6 (+6.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NE -1.6 (-11.6) | 135.7 (+4.3) | 58% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NE -1.7 (-11.7) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 59% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TOW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TOW 80 – 73 NE |
| Feb 2, 2024 | TOW 83 – 76 NE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NE 67 – 59 TOW |
| Jan 27, 2023 | TOW 72 – 63 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 16-2 |
| Home | 8-5 | 12-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#186) | -1.9 (#198) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#171) | 0.23 (#161) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#182) | 0.08 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#150) | 0.527 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NE | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.0% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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