Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Over |
| Money | TOW -300 NE +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOW +7 | 159 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -9.0 (-2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (+28.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -7.3 (-0.3) | 131.2 (+27.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -8.7 (-1.7) | 131.5 (+27.5) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -7.3 (-0.3) | 132.9 (+26.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -7.7 (-0.7) | 133.0 (+26.0) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | TOW 87 – 78 NE |
| Jan 28, 2025 | TOW 75 – 65 NE |
| Jan 10, 2025 | TOW 80 – 73 NE |
| Jan 13, 2024 | NE 67 – 59 TOW |
| Jan 27, 2023 | TOW 72 – 63 NE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-2 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-6 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 2-6 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.2 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#143) | -3.8 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.56 (#129) | -0.63 (#238) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#140) | -0.66 (#232) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#124) | 0.471 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOW | NE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.0% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 15.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 40.6% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 25.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.3% | 55.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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