Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | CCU -102 APP -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CCU +5 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | CCU -0.6 (+4.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CCU -0.2 (+4.8) | 136.7 (-7.7) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -1.1 (+6.1) | 137.9 (-8.9) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CCU -0.1 (+4.9) | 132.4 (-3.4) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -0.0 (+5.0) | 133.3 (-4.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2025 | APP 67 – 49 CCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APP 64 – 46 CCU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | APP 74 – 51 CCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APP 88 – 59 CCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | APP 70 – 45 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CCU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 10-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.8 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#276) | -4.0 (#232) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#249) | -0.43 (#209) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.39 (#255) | -0.93 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#265) | 0.475 (#225) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CCU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.7% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 14.2% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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