Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.5 Under |
| Money | APP -400 CCU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +23 | 125 | Won |
| Massey | APP -7.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 122.2 (+2.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -5.2 (+17.8) | 128.9 (-3.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -7.7 (+15.3) | 129.7 (-4.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -4.6 (+18.4) | 129.1 (-4.1) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -5.0 (+18.0) | 128.7 (-3.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CCU 67 – 62 APP |
| Dec 18, 2025 | APP 67 – 49 CCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APP 64 – 46 CCU |
| Jan 20, 2024 | APP 88 – 59 CCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | APP 70 – 45 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 10-22 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 3-15 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.8 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.6 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -3.0 (#219) | -6.2 (#274) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#217) | -1.69 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#227) | -2.33 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#204) | 0.397 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 10.2% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 76.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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