Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | APP -2500 CCU +1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +29 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | APP -19.0 (+10.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -16.3 (+12.7) | 141.7 (+5.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -13.9 (+15.1) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -15.5 (+13.5) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -16.7 (+12.3) | 138.4 (+8.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | CCU 67 – 62 APP |
| Dec 18, 2025 | APP 67 – 49 CCU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | APP 64 – 46 CCU |
| Jan 8, 2025 | APP 74 – 51 CCU |
| Jan 12, 2024 | APP 70 – 45 CCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-11 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 79.4 |
| Massey | 6.9 (#84) | -8.3 (#304) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#76) | -2.10 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.44 (#91) | -2.39 (#327) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#78) | 0.370 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | CCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.6% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 66.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.4% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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